Monday, November 01, 2010

Senescent Predictions

My fellow Blogger, David Todd has made his predictions, and below are mine. Last election cycle, David’s predictions were better than mine.  I’m looking to get even.  Below are my predictions for the Congressional and Gubernatorial elections tomorrow.  Here we go:

The GOP will win 78 House districts currently held by Democrats, and the Democrats will win 6 House seats currently held by Republicans, including a few surprises, or a net gain of 72.  My analysis is largely based upon Jim Geraghty’s analysis, which in turn was based largely on the very accurate Scott Rasmussen.  I veer from Geraghty’s analysis by predicting Keating to lose to Jeff Perry in Massachusetts, as well as Barney Frank to Sean Beilat.  I agree with NRO in predicting, gladly, that John Loughlin will win Patrick Kennedy’s RI District 1 seat away from David Cicilline.

Republicans will end up with a net of 8 seats: Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada (yahoo!), North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which will go to the GOP.  Unfortunately, Boxer will win in California, and the Democrats will eek out wins in Washington state and West Virginia; this will leave the Senate split 51–49 in the Democrats’ favor.  That’s okay because there will be enough fear that Democrats won’t be apt to move any further than the middle, especially after they see their beloved Speaker go down in flames in Nevada.

Republicans will net 9 more governor’s mansions, and I veer a little afield from NRO here and predict that though Meg will lose California, the Republican will beat Deval Patrick in Massachusetts.


Net GOP Gains

US House


US Senate




I also make these few predictions on the RI races:

Governor: Chafee (I ) – too bad.  A result of Caprio (moderate D) and Robitaille (R ) splitting the rest of the vote.

Lt. Governor: Roberts (D ) – also bad.  Leaves her visible for an eventual US Senate or gubernatorial run.

RI Dist 1 – Loughlin (R ) – As earlier mentioned and this win will make the day worth it.

RI Dist 2 – Langevin (D ) – Too bad.  Only in RI would someone so pro-Obama make it through this storm

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