Thursday, January 05, 2012

Early Prediction: Obama wins Re-election

Yes, I hate to say it, but that's my prediction right now. If conditions in the county remain on election day as they are right now, Obama will win.

I base that on what I'm seeing and hearing on the political landscape right now, and how I interpret the overriding political nature of the Baby Boomers. I wrote about that before on this blog, calling them the Candy Store Generation (first one is here). In my mind they—or I guess I should say "we"—have screwed up much or most of what is good about the United States. It has gotten so bad that I look for a future generation, which I call the "Had Enough Generation", who will reject what the CSG did and right the ship of state.

I believe the 2010 mid-term elections was the first appearance of the Had Enoughs. I wasn't sure if they would show their head so soon, thinking it might not be Gen X or even Gen Y, but might be somewhere out in the future. But show up the Had Enoughs did, in large enough numbers to make partial changes in Congress and scare the daylights out of the political establishment on both sides of the aisle.

But, based simply on raw numbers, the Candy Store Generation still rules this country and determines who is elected. Where were they in 2010? It was just an off-year election. They were asleep, or stoned, or busy with whatever a privileged and spoiled people do. So the first appearance of the Had Enoughs had a minor victory. But in 2012, the Candy Store Generation will be out in force. Their gravy train is threatened by those who don't want to pay the freight. There are enough voters in the CSG that I believe they will carry the day for Obama. Regardless of what polls and approval ratings suggest now, the CSG is not going to vote for those who will grab them by their hair and yank their sorry faces out of the government feeding trough. The Had Enoughs will see a little bit of a smack down in 2012.

When will the Had Enoughs be large enough to overcome the Candy Store Generation? I’m not ready to make that prediction yet. But I don’t think it will be in 2014 or 2016. It will only be when the CSG shrinks to a small enough part of the voting public, and their leadership in elected positions gives way to a younger generation. In fact, I'm still not sure that Gen X will be the Had Enoughs. The Had Enoughs will come from every generation voting. Some will come from what Brokaw calls the Greatest Generation. A few Boomers will be among the Had Enoughs. Gen X will be well represented in the Had Enoughs, but possibly it will be Gen Y before the Had Enoughs are dominant enough to really turn things around.

Having said all this, I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Had Enoughs can make gains in 2012, rather than be set back. I'll have to revisit this after the elections, and see how close I came. Meanwhile, my neck is well stretched out.

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