Thursday, October 21, 2004
Is it Really a "Dead Heat?"
Waking up to NPR, then watching The Today Show on NBC, as I do, almost every morning, one would come away with the idea that the presidential race is as tight as a duck's arse, and couldn’t get any tighter.
But in today’s US News.com, it appears that President George W. Bush's percentages have been ranging approximately 4%, on average, ahead of Senator John Kerry's:
“[Ranging] from 45 to 52 percent while John Kerry's percentages range from 42 to 47 percent. In only one poll does Bush fall below 47 percent, which is Kerry's highest percentage.
“It seems highly likely that Bush emerged from the debates a little bit ahead. [Though the conventional wisdom is that Kerry ‘won all three debates!’ Oh yeah, sure!]. Some Kerry backers argue that voters who are still undecided are likely to end up voting against the incumbent. But it's also possible that many of these will just not vote. And in any case, Bush is bumping up against the magic number of 50 percent. The debates helped John Kerry but evidently not enough to put him ahead.”
Also, today’s Zogby tracking poll has Bush ahead by 1%: “President Bush and Democratic rival Senator John Kerry are locked in a statistical dead-heat with Bush ahead of Kerry (46%-45%), according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll results are reminiscent of the presidential race in 2000 during this period. The telephone poll of 1212 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Wednesday (October 18-20, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.”
See Zogby’s comparative tracking to the 2000 election here.
But in today’s US News.com, it appears that President George W. Bush's percentages have been ranging approximately 4%, on average, ahead of Senator John Kerry's:
“[Ranging] from 45 to 52 percent while John Kerry's percentages range from 42 to 47 percent. In only one poll does Bush fall below 47 percent, which is Kerry's highest percentage.
“It seems highly likely that Bush emerged from the debates a little bit ahead. [Though the conventional wisdom is that Kerry ‘won all three debates!’ Oh yeah, sure!]. Some Kerry backers argue that voters who are still undecided are likely to end up voting against the incumbent. But it's also possible that many of these will just not vote. And in any case, Bush is bumping up against the magic number of 50 percent. The debates helped John Kerry but evidently not enough to put him ahead.”
Also, today’s Zogby tracking poll has Bush ahead by 1%: “President Bush and Democratic rival Senator John Kerry are locked in a statistical dead-heat with Bush ahead of Kerry (46%-45%), according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll results are reminiscent of the presidential race in 2000 during this period. The telephone poll of 1212 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Wednesday (October 18-20, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.”
See Zogby’s comparative tracking to the 2000 election here.
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