Monday, November 08, 2004
The Final Word on Zogby - We Can Disregard Him
Polipundit picked up on this Sunday New York Times piece which, among other things, provides clarity into the subject of why Zogby was so way off this year. As many who follow this blog may know, we originally watched Zogby's findings closely because of his amazing accuracy in 1996 and his prediction on Florida's closeness in 2000. But that was until The Horserace Blog set us straight on Zogby a few weeks ago, highlighting his screwy methodologies this year, and his overt bias towards Kerry:
In what he described as a "bungee jump," the pollster flatly predicted in May that Mr. Kerry would win the election. He went on maintaining through the summer that the race was "Kerry's to lose." Then, even though his own election-eve poll showed Mr. Bush a point ahead, Mr. Zogby took an even bigger plunge on Election Day.Perhaps the friends and relatives of that Georgian lab worker can sue Zogby for giving him false hopes?
Late Tuesday afternoon he predicted that Mr. Kerry would win Florida, Ohio, Iowa and New Mexico (none of which he did) and get at least 311 votes in the Electoral College, while Mr. Bush was assured of only 213. (Mr. Zogby modestly declined to forecast the remaining 14 electoral votes).
"I did something I shouldn't have," Mr. Zogby cheerfully confessed on Thursday. "I am a better pollster than predictor."
He said that his Election Day prediction was inspired not by the faulty exit polls but mainly by his own polling among young voters and field reports of high turnout among the young.
"I don't know that anyone was hospitalized over my prediction," he said. "If there are any orphans that are out there, from the bottom of my heart I apologize. We'll try to start up a fund."
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