The Senescent Man

Since the topic of the Zogby polls has been discussed so much recently, let's take a look at how he really did in this election by comparing his results to the actuals now known, and the predictions of a much better pollster, Mason Dixon.

These are the Zogby vs. real numbers, as of noon Wednesday. Done. De-mythed. 2000 was a fluke. He has no pulse on the nation.

Arizona
Zogby had it +6% for Bush
Mason Dixon did not consider Arizona to be close enough to poll
Final +11% for Bush

Arkansas
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Mason Dixon had it +8% for Bush
Final +9% for Bush

Colorado
Zogby had it too close to call - even
Mason Dixon had it +7% for Bush
Final +7% for Bush

Florida
Zogby had it +.1% for Kerry and trending Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +4% for Bush
Final +5% for Bush

Iowa
Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +5% for Bush
Final still TBD – looking like Bush +1%

Michigan
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +2% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Minnesota
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +1% for Bush
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Missouri
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Mason Dixon had it +5% for Bush
Final Result +8% for Bush

Nevada
Zogby had it too close to call – even
Mason Dixon had it +6% for Bush
Final +3% for Bush

New Hampshire
Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +1% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry

New Mexico
Zogby had it +3% for Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +4% for Bush
Final +5% for Bush

North Carolina
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Mason Dixon did not consider North Carolina to be close enough to poll
Final Result +13% for Bush

Oregon
Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +5% for Kerry

Ohio
Zogby had it +2% for Bush but trending Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +2% for Bush
Final Result +3 for Bush

Pennsylvania
Zogby had it trending Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +2% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Tennessee
Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Mason Dixon did not consider Tennessee to be close enough to poll
Final +14% for Bush

Virginia
Zogby had it slight edge for Bush
Mason Dixon did not consider Virginia to be close enough to poll
Final +8% for Bush

Washington
Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Mason Dixon did not consider Washington to be close enough to poll
Final Result +7% for Kerry

West Virginia
Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Mason Dixon had it +8% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush

Wisconsin
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Mason Dixon had it +2% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry

Of course, he released a statement on his website proclaiming the accuracy of their poll results.

Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:

“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize."

This should answer any remaining questions about the accuracy and the partisanship of Zogby!