Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Ohio - Ohio - Ohio
From the Horserace Blog...
Nixguy has taken a look at the OH registration data. Once again, the "lie" is put to all these Democratic 527s. His conclusion:
In a perfect replay of 2000, if each county in Ohio voted according to the same percentages Republican and Democrat, with the same turnout figures, Bush gets 157,431 more votes (than he did in 2000); Kerry gets 120,780 more votes than Gore did.
That would be a net 36,651 votes for Dubya due to registration changes alone. Something tells me George Soros is going to regret having dumped so much Ohio GOTV cash in the hands of Dean's Iowa GOTV Director.
Ohio
Bush: 48.45%
Kerry: 47.42%
MOE: +/- 1.5%
(Respondents: 5,614; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Cleveland Plain-Dealer 10/30, Strategic Vision 11/01, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Gallup 10/31, University of Cincinatti 10/31)
Based on these results, we can be 86.43% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
Nixguy has taken a look at the OH registration data. Once again, the "lie" is put to all these Democratic 527s. His conclusion:
In a perfect replay of 2000, if each county in Ohio voted according to the same percentages Republican and Democrat, with the same turnout figures, Bush gets 157,431 more votes (than he did in 2000); Kerry gets 120,780 more votes than Gore did.
That would be a net 36,651 votes for Dubya due to registration changes alone. Something tells me George Soros is going to regret having dumped so much Ohio GOTV cash in the hands of Dean's Iowa GOTV Director.
Ohio
Bush: 48.45%
Kerry: 47.42%
MOE: +/- 1.5%
(Respondents: 5,614; Polls Used: Fox News 11/01, Cleveland Plain-Dealer 10/30, Strategic Vision 11/01, Mason-Dixon 10/30, Gallup 10/31, University of Cincinatti 10/31)
Based on these results, we can be 86.43% confident that Bush currently has a lead.
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