Sunday, October 22, 2006

Conservatives will Decide Election - But Not How You Think

Something David Brooks said on the Lehrer News Hour last Friday has been weighing on my mind. He said that this will be a very bad election year for "moderates." I thought about this in the context of all the feedback from disappointed conservatives who are saying outright that they will sit out certain races, like Chafee's, and came to some conclusions.

Conservatives will decide the outcome of this election nationwide, but not like we would have wanted or intended. Because they have lost enthusiasm, and are mostly against the moderate Republicans still standing after the primary, and because even Conservative Republican candidates are running away from principles in many cases, conservatives, and particularly social conservatives will sit out the election.

Originally, I was under the optimistic impression that maybe the Republicans would lose some seats in the House and Senate, and maybe they'd even lose the House, but that would be the worst of it. However, after now having read Fred Barnes in the Weekly Standard, I have come to some new conclusions. I am now ready to make some pronoucements on the coming election.
Of course I may change my mind before then, but if all things remain the same, here is where I think we're at:

Chafee loses to Whitehouse.

The only Republican elected in RI at the state offices level is Governor Carcieri.

In local races in RI, Fung loses in Cranston.

The governors in MD and MA revert back to the Democratic column.

Lieberman wins in CT, and as an independent, joins - and is allowed back into - the Democrat caucus.

Kean, Allen and Talent barely win in NJ, VA and MO, respectively.

Santorum loses to Casey in PA.

DeWine loses to Brown in OH.

Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives and very likely the Senate.

Perhaps this will be a needed purging, and Republicans can reboot after the election, but I fear for the judgeship appointments. I also have concern about the aftermath of a cut and run policy in Iraq.

Brooks also mentioned something important about Iraq. He said Iraq is NOT like Vietnam. When we cut and run from Vietnam, Vietnam did not come to America. If and when we cut and run from Iraq, the terrorists will be on our doorsteps.

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