Friday, January 04, 2008

What Now?

Okay, so my predictions (made at another site) turned out to be true: Huckabee winning Iowa for the Republicans and Obama for the Democrats. I was not confident enough to predict the order of the also-rans.

The question is, what does this do to the races? In the past, and I'm thinking back to 1976, the Iowa caucuses served the purpose of weeding out the lower tier candidates, and propelling one or more of them into the limelight. It did not necessarily choose the winner. But I wonder if the 2004 Democratic caucus result shows a change in the status of Iowa, or if it was an abberation. Kerry won that, destroying Dean and Gephart in the process. It was pretty much all over after Iowa, with Edwards holding on as long as he could.

Now, with all the primaries scrunched together like never before, what does Iowa mean for the nomination? And is it the same for the Democrats and Republicans?

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