Sunday, February 24, 2008
A Theory on How This Could Play Out
I am developing a theory. Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I am taking a different perspective on the election.
What if it is true that Obama will take the Democratic nomination. And let's just say McCain gets through the current winds and closes the deal on the Republican nomination in short order.
What if Obama wins by - I don't know - 10% of the delegates. My theory is this: though he has become the anointed of the "new generation of Americans" that in primary races across the country, that has meant a lot, but in the general election known for a much higher percentage of participation, and now throwing in a little bit of Nader in the mix, and voila! McCain has a shot.
This theory does not take into account momentum, which could have an effect on average voters - similarly to the way the 1960's election went. So I admit, this theory could be run over by the freight train of voters shifting with the Big Mo. One can't help see the mojo in the Obama campaign.
Perhaps Hillary can win at least in Ohio where she still currently holds a decent lead - just to put a crimp in the Obama momentum, but in the end it is likely to be Obama v. McCain, and if we can roll sevens, maybe we can avoid going through an Obama presidency.
I just can't see the mood of the nation changing so drastically that when the general election arrives, nine months from now, that despite voters' feelings about the war in Iraq, the economy, and Bush's poor diction, they won't be so mad as to place a person into the presidency who has no experience outside of pure political experience, and only 2 years in the US Senate, while promoting on of the most liberal agendas in decades.
But who knows?
What if it is true that Obama will take the Democratic nomination. And let's just say McCain gets through the current winds and closes the deal on the Republican nomination in short order.
What if Obama wins by - I don't know - 10% of the delegates. My theory is this: though he has become the anointed of the "new generation of Americans" that in primary races across the country, that has meant a lot, but in the general election known for a much higher percentage of participation, and now throwing in a little bit of Nader in the mix, and voila! McCain has a shot.
This theory does not take into account momentum, which could have an effect on average voters - similarly to the way the 1960's election went. So I admit, this theory could be run over by the freight train of voters shifting with the Big Mo. One can't help see the mojo in the Obama campaign.
Perhaps Hillary can win at least in Ohio where she still currently holds a decent lead - just to put a crimp in the Obama momentum, but in the end it is likely to be Obama v. McCain, and if we can roll sevens, maybe we can avoid going through an Obama presidency.
I just can't see the mood of the nation changing so drastically that when the general election arrives, nine months from now, that despite voters' feelings about the war in Iraq, the economy, and Bush's poor diction, they won't be so mad as to place a person into the presidency who has no experience outside of pure political experience, and only 2 years in the US Senate, while promoting on of the most liberal agendas in decades.
But who knows?
Labels: 2008 Election
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