Friday, September 12, 2008

Recent RealClearPolitics electoral vote trend

I've been following RealClearPolitics of late, checking both the poll for national popular vote and the state by state talley of electoral vote. They do this based on: states solidly in a candidate's camp; states leaning to a candidate; and states considered a toss up.

A couple of weeks ago, before the two conventions, Obama had a significant lead in their estimation, I think it was 232 Obama (solid and leaning) to 147 McCain (solid and leaning). They currently show it 217 Obama 216 McCain, based on the following recent changes in state polls.

on 9/9 New Jersey from solidly Obama to leaning Obama
on 9/9 North Carolina from toss up to leaning McCain
on 9/11 Georgia from leaning McCain to solidly McCain
on 9/11 Florida from toss up to leaning McCain
0n 9/11 North Carolina (again) from leaning McCain to solidly McCain.

Including all states, and allocating the toss ups to a candidate according to the poll, they show Obama 273 McCain 265.

The most significant thing is the rapid movement in North Carolina (check this link). In two polls the movement is clearly to McCain. At the same time nothing is moving towards Obama; five out of five recent changes are away from him.

I'm not ready to call it for McCain/Palin, but clearly they have the big Mo at present.

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