Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Three Reasons Why (I Think) McCain Will Lose Today

1. The candidates are too similar to each other. Sean Hannity is wrong in this when he says there is a stark difference politically between Obama and McCain. McCain is just as likely as Obama to find a government solution to every problem. His solutions may be slightly different than Obama's, but it will still be the government solving people's problems. The nanny state will come with either one, and not much sooner with Obama than McCain.

2. The party perceived as starting a war almost always loses. In the post-World War 2 era, consider this record:

1948: at peace; Democrat returned.

1952: at war in Korea; Republican elected.

1956: at peace; Republican returned.

1960: at peace; Democrat wins by a razor thin margin based on much corrupt voting and daddy's money

1964: at peace; Democrat returned

1968: at war in Vietnam; Republican elected

1972: war in Vietnam almost over; Republican returned

1976: at peace; Democrat wins in post-Watergate backlash against Republican

1980: at peace; Republican wins

1984: at peace (I guess Grenada doesn't count); Republican returned

1988: at peace; Republican returned

1992: Gulf War fought during term; Democrat win

1996: at peace; Democrat returned.

2000: at peace; Republican wins EC while Democrat wins popular vote

2004: at war in Iraq and against terrorism; Republican wins by slim margin--the only time since WW2 that the party who promoted war during the term won.

2008: at war in Iraq/against terrorism; -----------

3. America is, in general, a just and fair nation. We are still atoning for our sins of slavery and post-slavery discrimination. Obama will gain some votes on that basis alone.

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