Thursday, October 28, 2010
Bob Beckel's Desperate Search for a Silver Lining
Bob Beckel was on the Sean Hannity TV show earlier this week, either Monday or Tuesday. Now, let me say first off that I don't like Sean Hannity. I think he is a hack journalist and a lousy thinker who, by God's good graces, stumbled upon the right answers. But the wife likes to watch him, so sometimes I do too. Hannity of course gave Beckel a hard time about what appears to be huge Republican gains in the Senate and House next week. Beckel conceded that the House looks gone to the Democrats. He said he expects the Republicans to win the House, picking up upper forties or low fifties seats. Quite an admission on his part.
Now the killer admission comes in. He wouldn't say whether the Democrats will keep the Senate or not, but he said the GOP has a much tougher road there than in the House. He talked about "wave elections" in the last century, and how the party riding the wave always took control of both the House and the Senate. Since it looks like the GOP won't take the Senate, he said their "wave victory" would not be as great as previous wave victories.
I see that as a desperate attempt to see a silver lining in the Democratic wreckage. "Your party only picked up 8 senate seats, not 10, and you don't have control. Some wave you rode." Some silver lining, Bob. With the loss of 7 to 8 seats (and you may lose more), you will lose effective control of the Senate to the Republicans and a moderate coalition. In fact, if the Republicans win eight seats--which looks probable--they will have 49 senators and the Democrats will have only 49 as well. Who will the two independents (Lieberman and Sanders) caucus with? Probably with the Democrats. More interesting, what if the GOP picks up nine senators--not impossible. That will make it 50:48:2 R:D:I. If that happens, might either Lieberman (possible) or Sanders (highly unlikely) caucus with the Republicans, so that they can be in the majority? An interesting speculation.
How shiny is that silver lining now, Bob?
Now the killer admission comes in. He wouldn't say whether the Democrats will keep the Senate or not, but he said the GOP has a much tougher road there than in the House. He talked about "wave elections" in the last century, and how the party riding the wave always took control of both the House and the Senate. Since it looks like the GOP won't take the Senate, he said their "wave victory" would not be as great as previous wave victories.
I see that as a desperate attempt to see a silver lining in the Democratic wreckage. "Your party only picked up 8 senate seats, not 10, and you don't have control. Some wave you rode." Some silver lining, Bob. With the loss of 7 to 8 seats (and you may lose more), you will lose effective control of the Senate to the Republicans and a moderate coalition. In fact, if the Republicans win eight seats--which looks probable--they will have 49 senators and the Democrats will have only 49 as well. Who will the two independents (Lieberman and Sanders) caucus with? Probably with the Democrats. More interesting, what if the GOP picks up nine senators--not impossible. That will make it 50:48:2 R:D:I. If that happens, might either Lieberman (possible) or Sanders (highly unlikely) caucus with the Republicans, so that they can be in the majority? An interesting speculation.
How shiny is that silver lining now, Bob?
Labels: 2010 Election
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