Wednesday, November 24, 2004

Dino Dropping?

Jim Miller of (Puget) Sound Politics has modified his odds for Dino Rossi from 3 to 1 in his favor to even odds. We're still calling the race for Dino, but dem Dems are up to no good. Here is an excerpt:

The margin after the first recount, 42 votes, is so small that it is easy to see that it might not survive another recount. (Those of you who follow my site closely may recall that I originally set the odds at 3 to 1 in Rossi's favor. But that was before King county discovered so many votes.)

King county, the heart of the Christine Gregoire's strength, did what amounted to a manual recount, and so I would not expect her to gain more than few votes here. But she could gain more in the rest of the state, even though she lost badly to Dino Rossi in most of Washington's counties. The votes that she might gain would come from voters who did not fill out their ballots correctly. Those voters tend to be less educated than the average voter and the less educated tend to be Democrats. (As well as the most educated. The Republicans have the edge with in between voters, from high school graduates up to those with post graduate educations.) Kerry had just a 1 point advantage over Bush this year among those with less than a high school education, according to the New York Times exit poll, but in the three previous presidential elections, the Democratic advantage was more than more than 20 percent in that group.
There is concern that selective hand counting could move Christine Gregoire into the win column. Stay tuned. You can read my previous posts on this topic here and here.

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